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Andy Millette: Hi, Dennis, how you doing, man?
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Dennis Leontyev: Great, hey, Andy? Good to see you! How are you? It’s going? Well, good to see you. So we came. We’re coming up on the second half of the year.
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Andy Millette: and I want to say I thought the first half there would be more fireworks if you would, which you really wasn’t and I just want to get your thoughts impressions. What you are seeing for the second half of 2,023.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah, I mean, you’re absolutely correct. I think that overall the economy in the or the equity market did a lot better than people anticipated long better than I anticipated.
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Dennis Leontyev: I was under the impression that the leading indicators that we see over the last 12 to 18 months the inverted yield curve, and so on and so forth. It always
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Dennis Leontyev: precedes economic, slow downs, and we shut the recessions. So far it hasn’t happened
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Dennis Leontyev: we had a bit of a banking crisis in regional banks, which kind of scared me and a lot of traders and economists. But so far it’s been being contained
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Dennis Leontyev: and the rally in the stock market. At first, when we set the stock markets up there and went nowhere, the first part of the year
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Dennis Leontyev: the internals and technicals of kind of if it actually could kind of bearish, I think, in touch on that last time we talk but the market, the weather, the storm, and the last month we’ve seen a very good rally.
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Dennis Leontyev: and this is for the first time
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Dennis Leontyev: this year, over the last several months
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Dennis Leontyev: that the rally was not just about several Mesex stocks. It was brought.
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Dennis Leontyev: and that was kind of impressive so kind of changed my mind about being on the Irish side. Not that I’m only bullish, but
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Dennis Leontyev: things improved.
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Dennis Leontyev: and that’s why quite interesting. So.
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Dennis Leontyev: and a lot of people who were on the bearish side, thinking, what is going to derail the mark?
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Dennis Leontyev: That that’s the question.
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And the interesting thing. I looked at economic reports, and I actually put some.
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Dennis Leontyev: no, it’s economic reports that came in last week. I mean.
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Dennis Leontyev: you got weekly jobless claims much better than anticipated. Us. Housing starts up 5 to 5% year over a year. That’s their highest
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Dennis Leontyev: level in 12 months.
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Dennis Leontyev: Even the Gdp. Which we didn’t, we didn’t have much growth, they were reply, and Gdp was revised. 2% considerably higher and durable goods
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Dennis Leontyev: all accelerated in May.
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Dennis Leontyev: I mean, it’s hard to be parish if you, if you’re an economist, if you you know.
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Dennis Leontyev: look at the market from the macroeconomic stuff and fundamentals is a good sign.
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Dennis Leontyev: So I that’s
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yeah. I’m glad you brought that up. Let me ask. I have some thoughts I want to share and see what you think. But before I give my thoughts I want to know
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Andy Millette: or I’m asking. are you seeing some quantitative easing from the fed, or to come in about that? Or what do you see from that?
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Dennis Leontyev: I don’t. not at the moment. So what I’m thinking is
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Dennis Leontyev: The Powell said that the
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Dennis Leontyev: they’re not done raising rates, which you know, they’re still fighting inflation. Okay, I inflation is coming down, which is a good thing, I think. So far they’ve done a good job So his latest speech was clear that they going to do it once or twice again this year.
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Dennis Leontyev: so I don’t see any. The only thing that could derail this
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Dennis Leontyev: our regional banks. So we went on the storm 3 months ago. We only a few of them we went under.
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Dennis Leontyev: But what’s going on is, if you look at
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Dennis Leontyev: the total debt as far as Carlo and real estate, especially commercial real estate. And I I got my notes here.
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Dennis Leontyev: That is a canary in the coal mine.
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Dennis Leontyev: There’s a lot of them are going to be refinance and refinancing in these levels.
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Dennis Leontyev: It’s it’s bad for banks. It’s that.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah. So everything is dependent on banks, especially regional banks the stress test that the fed did for the bigger banks. They
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Dennis Leontyev: they pass the test with blind calls. I think they’re far bigger ones, or Jp. Morgan’s and Bank of America’s. I think they’ll weather the storm. They’ll do it.
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Dennis Leontyev: but the smaller ones I can give you. Oh, I got.
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Dennis Leontyev: I got some notes here again, as far as
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Dennis Leontyev: projections and like all alone originations. you know, record of 700 billion last year to allow spending debt.
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Dennis Leontyev: we’ve had one and a half trillion at the end of March.
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Dennis Leontyev: That’s enormous.
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Dennis Leontyev: And the most dangerous thing is the 12 month moving average. The total delinquency rates reached over 3%.
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Dennis Leontyev: And that’s the highest in 13.
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Dennis Leontyev: So that’s that’s just call. And that is that is something that okay. Right now, the short term interest rates are about 5, 5 and a quarter. If they raise more, we’re gonna approach 6.
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Andy Millette: And those rates. That is, that is dangerous for me. So yeah, well, I about that. So I’m looking to potentially purchase a house in another house. And I mean that just getting more space in and selling the current house that I’m in in 2,024, and I was talking to my friend, who’s a mortgage broker who I’ve done. That’s who I do. My mortgage is through.
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Andy Millette: and like 800 grand a thousand dollar home
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Andy Millette: you’re looking at.
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Andy Millette: You’re looking at about I want to say is about $4,500 to 5,000
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Andy Millette: for your mortgage payment.
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Andy Millette: Yeah. So which is gonna be like.
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Andy Millette: I mean, that’s my mortgage is like it. It’s less than 3% right now. And what I mean. So I’m going to be paying significantly more
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Andy Millette: for that. And so what I’m trying to say is like. I’m waiting. I’m waiting for rates to come down. So it’s like, what is this going to do to the housing market if and I’m going to make an assumption that Paul is going to continue to raise right?
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Andy Millette: So what’s that going to do to the real estate market.
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Dennis Leontyev: Well, it that was expected, I mean, for the last year or so everybody expected to slow down but it, and it did. It did for for a while.
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Dennis Leontyev: But look at the latest reports. I mean, it’s back to. I think maybe maybe people have a lot of equities in their current phones.
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Dennis Leontyev: If you buy a whether it’s a half a million dollar or a million dollar houses, they put, you know, 2530, 40 down so.
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Dennis Leontyev: and the
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Andy Millette: well, what the pay cash cause I was, you know it was, and I’m in Atlanta, and I just talking to him again. He’s busy even at these high rates because people have so much equity in their homes currently
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Andy Millette: that they’re still buying homes and taking out a alone. They’re just taking the equity of their current home, and using that as the down payment for.
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Andy Millette: you know, whatever else they want, you’re also. It’s interesting, too, is.
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Andy Millette: I think this is a lot more regional because what we’re seeing here in the southeast is a lot of residents from the northeast again, for
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Andy Millette: whatever reason they’re moving, they’re migrating to
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Andy Millette: different states. Maybe they’re maybe it’s whether maybe it’s still getting older. Maybe it’s tax for, you know, significantly of a tax break or or a job, or whatever have you? But he said that you’re just. They’re seeing still a big migration
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Andy Millette: to the southeast, and I don’t know where else that is in the country. But I think
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Dennis Leontyev: real estate has become a lot more regional if that makes sense.
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Andy Millette: where you are. People leaving.
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Dennis Leontyev: people are leaving. Yeah, there was. Well, I I’ve noticed it. And you know, just because I’m close. I’m on the Washington side in Vancouver. But it’s right there basically with a suburb
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Dennis Leontyev: and people leaving for like the reasons we use that. And you know, taxes are kind of outrageous.
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Dennis Leontyev: was, you know, all of a sudden there was a lot of crime. Things, things of that nature.
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Dennis Leontyev: now, they want some different. They’re moving to Idaho. They’re going somewhere. So Texas, you know. Arizona.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah, yeah, Arizona, maybe a warmer climates and different reasons. And but real estate agents who I talked to? They said that the real estate slowed down. But it’s not a disaster.
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Andy Millette: Yeah. And that’s in your area which you said you has in that outflow. So that’s interesting. So I guess what is. I have a theory and let me know
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Andy Millette: what you think. So we’re gonna assume here that Powell is going to continue to raise rates.
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Andy Millette: I don’t think.
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Andy Millette: and I was moderately bearish previously. But but I don’t.
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Andy Millette: I think how
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Andy Millette: raising rates the fed raising rates. I’m not
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Andy Millette: a more a lot more neutral, if not a little bit positive, going in the second half of the year. And here is why
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Andy Millette: I see a ton of money that is set on the sidelines.
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Dennis Leontyev: Oh, yeah.
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Andy Millette: and I think they got it. They were going to want to deploy that money. That’s number one, number 2. You indicated or shared some strong economic, stronger than expected economic data.
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Andy Millette: So that’s going to force that money to be deployed. That’s the first thing. The second thing
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Andy Millette: we have an election next year.
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Dennis Leontyev: and it’s hard for me to see
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Andy Millette: things being too negative
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Andy Millette: in an election year. No, they might. I want to be. There’s a caveat. They might get really negative in the fall.
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Andy Millette: but they’re going. If that happens, it’s just going to be in the fall. It’s hard for me to see.
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Andy Millette: and much of an overlap past the fall because of the election cycle.
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Andy Millette: What are your thoughts?
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Dennis Leontyev: I agree, I think.
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Dennis Leontyev: from the economic standpoint, the those
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Dennis Leontyev: reports lately. They don’t surprise me necessarily, but they kind of assured me that things are not that bad.
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Dennis Leontyev: Where is that? Even 3 months ago we were having a conversation not just us to, but economists, traders, and
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Dennis Leontyev: finance years. The the question was, isn’t going to be a hard lending or soft landing
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Dennis Leontyev: right now. I don’t see any landing
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Dennis Leontyev: there is already, I mean it’s where is it? And therefore
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Dennis Leontyev: from the stock market standpoint it has improved. as I mentioned a lot of things it’s starting to. in the industrial, for example, basically our all type 5. And it’s like that. Even small caps.
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Dennis Leontyev: They were down in the toilet for many months. Even they started right. The only problem is still regional banks and touch on that already. So they’re not going
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Dennis Leontyev: stuck there. But AI makes everything very lucrative and interesting.
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Dennis Leontyev: because it’s one of those revolutions that
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Dennis Leontyev: probably similar to what we have in the nineties with the the Internet and the telecommunications and things like that. We don’t where it’s going. But there’s positive and negative, but mostly positive. It’s it’s amazing what’s going on right now. And usually new innovations just throughout history of the United States of the world produces our equity values and things like that.
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Dennis Leontyev: It’s like a bleed out. I mean, it bleeds into other assets, and as far as the pad. I believe Powell will do what he said, meaning he would raise, maybe once or twice, and that’s what he said, and it might create like like you mentioned, it might create certain.
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Dennis Leontyev: you know, explosion here and there in the fall. I don’t see you from the stock market point right now. I don’t see any major reversals to the downside
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Dennis Leontyev: bearing some geopolitical events. Something like that
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Dennis Leontyev: I pull backs will be minor corrections will be minor, and we either going to go nowhere or we’re going to try to challenge the all time. Highs, I mean, that’s the right thing right now, and you know every trader can be skeptical that I’m looking at it with. I like what I see. Yeah, I think we got a related to the data here. And the data is. And also, yeah, and we we talked about, for example, energy
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Dennis Leontyev: that was The first part of this year is kind of bumpy. Mining is starting to look a lot better.
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Andy Millette: So let’s talk about that I think you’re right, I think. we’ve talked about it, for I don’t know 6, 6, 8 weeks now. that maybe you’re a little early, but we’d still buy.
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Andy Millette: I think I mean I’m knocking on the wood with by both my hands. But everything I know points to higher energy prices from here. the Saudi cutting another 1 million, you know, for already us having a deficit or I’m looking at the oil reports. We’re having drawdowns. We’re really starting to get big draw downs, and then that Saudi cut is coming in July.
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Andy Millette: They’ll pick, cut scheme in June.
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Dennis Leontyev: And then Let’s assume for a second, we, our theory of the economy is actually improving.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah, I mean, I more than that. Yeah, exactly. It’s hard for me to.
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Andy Millette: And then, technically speaking, we’ve had several bounces off the high sixties in in crude. And then and then to throw all that in. We’ve had very negative sentiment. which is, we talked about it last time. Right? Right? I I think we’re sitting as far as the commodity itself. We’re somewhere at the bottom, which is balancing because there is no reason to go down
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Andy Millette: and like just like we we discussed last time, I’m more interested, not necessarily in the commodity, but the equity side of it are the indexes and individual energy stocks. And I remember we talked about Xop one of the for the pages. Yes, and they were sitting at the bottom. We’re talking technical terms
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Dennis Leontyev: around 120 ish right now around 130. It’s good sign I’m I’m holding that position back in in the options, but it’s being a lot better. It has 200 day moving average right in front of it, buck 32. So I think it’s gonna clear it.
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Dennis Leontyev: And there’s a lot of room on the upside. I mean, they’re looking good technically and fundamentally they they’re still cheap. well, that’s it. They’re so cheap relative to it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s a really snow, pretty. Yeah, they they that’s one of those great trades, as far as as far as precious metals are concerned. There’s this stock right now. Usually summary, is not not great time for them.
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Dennis Leontyev: we’ll see. They’ll probably come alive maybe around September. So I think in August, maybe September. But yeah, I agree in the fall. they’re just choppy right now. I was talking to a fella trader of mine, and he said
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Andy Millette: some of the his Indian. He does a lot of business overseas and Indian contacts, and he said that they’re they’re buying. They’re big buyers at about 1,900. So he said, that’s gonna be. Your floor is high. 18 hundreds to 1,900. You’re gonna see a lot of buyers come in if it goes that low. If gold goes that low
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Andy Millette: and silver you’re getting some buying in here, but you’re gonna get a lot of buyers if it comes in below 20, you know. That’s when you get it, which you might get a flesh out.
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Andy Millette: you know. Who knows? you might just get nibblers here, but I don’t think you’re going to see him move until the fall if you see a move.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah, I I think summer is going to be kind of dead. But summer meeting the next couple of months or so. But
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Dennis Leontyev: After that it might get interesting, depending what the prices and where it sits, and so on. Right now. I don’t have any positions there. couple of stocks, but
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Dennis Leontyev: copper is very interesting. And I I wanted to bring that up. it’s very interesting to me. I think that’s a great trade, or setting up to be a great trade.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah, I think, because, well, first of all, it it a lot of times. It acts as a leading indicator
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Dennis Leontyev: to the economy because it’s on demand. And it’s in the industrial level. And it also. Sometimes it leads, sometimes it follows But considering the economics that are
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Andy Millette: hopefully improving. I think copper is first, one is going to benefit from the yeah of all the metals. This one is by far my favorite. I would agree. It’s my favorite right now, and I think fundamentally just projecting over the next several years, a few years, several years. I believe we’re going to be in a significant deficit. of copper. So
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Andy Millette: there is. Yeah, the zoom, basically shortages. Yeah, yeah, so yeah, let’s talk about that setting up. What are your, what’s your number one besides energy, what are your number? One in 2 trades going into the end of the year.
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Dennis Leontyev: it’s hard to say so. And besides, energy, I would look at
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Dennis Leontyev: I like healthcare stocks.
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Dennis Leontyev: because they are practically in you from economic shocks.
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Dennis Leontyev: I mean, there is a, you know, crashes and bare markets. Of course they, you know. there are interesting developments. I I I think, with AI with them they’re interesting. They are under the price. I believe they will kind of forgotten this going nowhere.
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Dennis Leontyev: I like them in general. They’re not over priced at all. I think they’re under priced. this one, as far as we’re talking about biggest sectors.
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Dennis Leontyev: I like them. I I really do. So I’m a more of a at this point. I
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Dennis Leontyev: I don’t want to jump on, you know. Growth story. I don’t think there is much growth, so I’m not interested in high tech. I know they’re doing great right now, but they’re very expensive.
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Dennis Leontyev: and it’s not my cup of tea to just, you know.
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Dennis Leontyev: right or the I don’t, and chase so, and you can find a lot. It’s it’s idiosyncratic. It’s not necessarily, you know, pick a se or an industry
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Dennis Leontyev: small cap value.
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Dennis Leontyev: It doesn’t matter what industry or sector. They’re very priced. they’re sitting there at the bottom, which is trying to move up. And that’s where I’m that’s where I’m looking for. I don’t have an example for you at the moment. So. But I’m doing some research as far as smaller cap stocks. I think they’re going to benefit. We can maybe do that next week.
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Dennis Leontyev: Yeah. And I think in the higher rising in the rising rate environment. I mean, growth doesn’t okay, but less so other than some massive stocks and are searching for value.
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Dennis Leontyev: And I think that’s the right way to do that. That’s why we talked about energy.
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Dennis Leontyev: So yeah.
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Dennis Leontyev: that’s where you can. That’s where you can. You find diamonds in the rock there that can, you know, go from 20 to 200. So in a matter of months, you’re on the medals and macroeconomics. So if you have a technical student that will help. So that that that’s what that’s what I’m looking for.
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Andy Millette: Yeah, I would give you again. We both love energy at these. That’s probably your best trade. that being said, I love your copper trade. I’ve been thinking a lot about copper recently in the past several weeks, and I would play the equity side, even though I think the medal is going to do fantastic. But I think the equities and I’ll name drop some equities as we move forward. But I think that’s a play in the fall.
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Andy Millette: I think another one. Here’s one for you that’s becoming to me very interesting. But this is a multi year play, and I think I’m early.
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Andy Millette: That being said, I’m really becoming interested in the uranium market. Just because of all of the let’s say, assume. Let’s assume for a second that crew goes to in the next 24 months a hundred $20 a barrel, or a hundred $30 a barrel, which I think is quite doable.
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Dennis Leontyev: Right?
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Andy Millette: You’re going to. And there already are. They’re going to look for other sources of energy. Other countries are going to look for other sources of energy and clean energy. And, in fact, Japan just reopened
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Andy Millette: uranium. I don’t know how to say this. Well, yeah, I mean, they’re just through going all in again. Not very much. Want to build uranium plans.
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same with places in Europe. so which in in the Us. So I see that as a multi year play.
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Andy Millette: But again, I think we’re early, but maybe in the I I agree with you as far as longer. Term longer term.
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Dennis Leontyev: I. When I look at them I’m kind of lost. They either going nowhere. It’s but long term. I don’t think it can be wrong with those anything. Oh, it another one that I actually forgot. It’s just you mentioned alternative energy, right? Basically, sources of different sources of energy other than oil.
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Dennis Leontyev: there is an Etf called 10. I don’t know if I mentioned people or not. Ta, and and this is basically a green energy. Ec, I think wind solar and all that.
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Dennis Leontyev: I think it looks fantastic. because well, first of all, the
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Dennis Leontyev: trying slowly to get more and more share of overall energy right now. It’s very malls, like 5 to 6 of the overall production advantage. But in a in a few years it’s going to be higher
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Dennis Leontyev: and not just our government, but most governments throw billions and trillions of dollars into this, and they cannot go wrong. I mean, even if they go wrong. It’s still money loans into this. So the one that I like I I’m not holding it in the short term, but I like right now I’m trading in not not holding it long term. I’m sorry I’m trading it short term.
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Dennis Leontyev: But I think overall the product like that.
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Dennis Leontyev: we’ll do well over the next several
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Dennis Leontyev: complements. Your your audience story. So there’s sort of parallel. So going in the same direction, yeah, I would agree. Okay, any final thoughts to. We see to the next week or 2,
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Dennis Leontyev: I think. No, I think we’ve covered pretty much everything. So I’m a little bit on the positive side right now. So I view directions and pull back to the buying opportunities and watch out for those banks. Yeah, right? All right. Well, thanks for your time, and we’ll meet up here in the next week or 2, and just we’ll see where we’re at.
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Dennis Leontyev: Thank you, Andrew, always a pleasure. Thank you. Yeah. Pleasure was all mine. Thank you, Dennis.
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